Chicago in good shape for playoffs, but still faces lingering concerns
ReutersThe emergence of?pitcher Chris Sale into a true ace is one big reason for the White Sox's surprising run to the top of the AL Central.
MLB EXPERT MAILBAG
By Tony DeMarco
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 7:18 p.m. ET Aug. 14, 2012
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Q: At what point will most of the sportswriter hierarchy realize that no one really gets all goose-pimply at the thought of the Yankees and Red Sox? Have any of your colleagues looked at the White Sox this year?
? John Daresh, El Paso, Texas
A: Those are two separate issues you raise, John, but I'm guessing you're more interested in the latter. Even in their hometown, the Sox play second-fiddle to the Cubs ? no matter where both teams are in the standings. It's just one of those things.
But I don't think the Sox have been ignored by national writing media? (national television networks are another matter, of course), and I do believe they are in the playoff chase to stay.
As for the AL Central race, seven remaining games against the Tigers will be critical. But the last of those comes Sept. 13, and the Tigers do have the advantage of playing their final four series? against the Twins and Royals, while the Sox get a tougher draw with the Indians (seven games), Rays (four) and Angels (three).
As for the wild card spots, the Sox are in very solid position. Their remaining schedule is easier than contenders in the other two divisions, who won't get the benefit of playing intra-division games against three also-rans in the Indians, Twins and Royals.
How have the Sox gotten here after being picked by virtually everybody this spring to be a non-contender? I've enumerated the reasons on a couple of occasions already this season in this space, and they're still holding up as we reach mid-August:
- They very well could sweep the board in the AL Comeback Player of the Year balloting with Adam Dunn, Jake Peavy and Alex Rios. Teams consider themselves fortunate if one player has a comeback season like this, but three?
- Chris Sale has burst to All-Star/No. 1-starter status ? and to think they weren't exactly sure what to do with him in spring training ? starter or reliever.
- What's gotten into A.J. Pierzynski, who's already set a career high with 23 homers, and with 67 RBI is only 11 RBI away from a new career high?
- Addison Reed's emergence as a solid closer at the back end of a young bullpen.
- Useful mid-season pickups made by general manager Kenny Williams ? Kevin Youkilis, Brett Myers and Francisco Liriano ? plus the late-July return from the DL by solid setup man Jesse Crain.
- And of course, the managerial switch to Robin Ventura, whose measured approach has been a perfect change of pace from Ozzie Guillen ? so much so that Ventura is a leading Manager of the Year candidate along with Bob Melvin and Buck Showalter.
?????? Now, the potential problem sources down the stretch:
- Teams can win without their best player, the latest example being the Joey Votto-less Cincinnati Reds. But Paul Konerko is on the seven-day concussion DL, and just was cleared on Tuesday to begin baseball activities.
- Will Sale lose some effectiveness as his innings total soars past his previous high? Ditto Peavy (162.2 innings and counting), who had surgery last year, and totaled only 111.2, 107 and 101.2 innings in his previous three seasons?
- How will a staff so heavily reliant on young arms (five rookies plus 23-year-old Sale) hold up in September?
Q: So far, the general managers of the Rockies and Marlins are on the hot seat, and they likely won't be the only ones. But both have track records, and have put good teams together in the past. How can all the problems be laid on the general manager?
? Lorenzo, Ocean Beach, Calif.
A: You bring up two of the most-bizarrely run organizations in the game, Lorenzo. I've been around the Rockies since their second season back in 1994, have seen everything since the pre-humidor/Blake Street Bomber days, so I'll start with them.
You mention track records ? I think it's fair to say Dan O'Dowd could have been fired a couple of times in his 12+ seasons. In that time, there have been only four winning seasons (and one of those was 82-80), the 2007 National League pennant and 2009 playoff appearance.
With ownership's full approval, the Mike Hampton-Denny Neagle signings occurred on O'Dowd's watch, the aftermath of which was a total rebuilding job that started in 2002. That culminated with the 2007 success ? but let's keep in mind that team stood at 77-70 in mid-September, on the verge of playoff elimination, before going on that once-in-a-generation 21-of-22 run to the pennant.
Since a late-September collapse in 2010 that cost them another playoff appearance, it's been all downhill, with the current team sitting about 30 games below .500, and heading for the worst season in a 20-year franchise history.Granted, injuries to key players Troy Tulowitzki, Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio and Jorge De La Rosa have been costly. But the stop-gap off-season acquisitions of Casey Blake, Jamie Moyer, Jeremy Guthrie, etc., didn't work out, and there wasn't enough depth ? especially pitching depth ? to prevent a complete collapse.
Strangely, all this hasn't left O'Dowd in serious jeopardy, as owner Dick Monfort ? for reasons known only to himself ? called O'Dowd the best general manager in the game earlier this season, and has no plan to fire him. Instead, O'Dowd and assistant Bill Geivett have swapped some areas of responsibility ? and we'll see how much change of direction that brings.
They can try their two-tiered rotation experiment (four starters backed by three 'piggy-back starters'), and yes, it really is tougher to pitch at mile-high altitude. But there's no hiding the fact that there isn't enough talent being produced within the organization ? and that goes back to the front office and development people.
So it's going to take at least until 2014 for the younger arms ? Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Christian Friedrich, Rex Brothers, etc. ? to develop into pitchers who can lead a team into contention.
As for the Marlins' Larry Beinfest ? finally given an opportunity to spend money, he failed miserably. The Jose Reyes signing has worked out for the time being, but it led to Hanley Ramirez's departure. Mark Buehrle has been mediocre, and Heath Bell has been a disaster.
The Marlins could have been this bad by doing things their old way, which had owner Jeffrey Loria pocketing revenue sharing money while pinching pennies with a sub-$50-million payroll. And remember, the Marlins have only one second-place finish, and haven't been back to the playoffs since their 2003 World Series title, so Beinfest's track record hasn't been that great, either.
Q: With Theo Epstein cleaning house in Chicago, how much longer do us Cubs fans have to wait to see a good team?
? Joshua Mann, St. Louis
A: A Cubs fan in St. Louis ? interesting. The simple answer is it's going to be awhile, Joshua ? probably not before 2015.
The good news is Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer have shed almost all of the big contracts ? Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, Ryan Dempster ? that had been clogging up the payroll, and has reduced it from a high of about $144 million in 2010 to about $110 million this season.
Still left is Alfonso Soriano ($40 million over the next two seasons), and if the Cubs are willing to eat much of that deal ? as they did with Zambrano, to whom they are paying $16 million of his $19-million salary this season ? they might find a taker for Soriano this winter.
While I'm one of many who believe Epstein received too much credit for the Red Sox's success in their 2004-2007 run, these are the right first steps. Along with it must be a financial commitment to developing from within, or acquiring young, building-block talent such as Anthony Rizzo. Check on that point, too.
So you're beginning to see the nucleus in place ? Rizzo, Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro, joined eventually by either third baseman Josh Vitters or either Javier Baez or Junior Lake at shortstop, necessitating a position switch or trade for Castro. Outfielder Brett Jackson could be a regular as soon as next season.
What's missing are elite pitching prospects, and that's one reason why I think the Cubs will hang onto Matt Garza, and build a rotation around him, Jeff Samardzija, and possibly Arodys Vizcaino, acquired from the Braves in the Paul Maholm-Reed Johnson deal.
But if they think the rebuilding will take longer than Garza's peak effectiveness will last, they can deal him for pitching prospects next year ? a trade along the lines of Ubaldo Jimenez-for-Drew Pomeranz and Alex White.
Where Epstein and Co. go in free agency this off-season also will be very interesting to watch. The Cubs do have flexibility, but they clearly are a few major building blocks short of being contenders at this point.
? 2012 NBC Sports.com? Reprintsadvertisement
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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/48666459/ns/sports-baseball/
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